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Neues Working Paper: D'Acunto, Hoang, Weber (2016) - The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure

Neues Working Paper: D'Acunto, Hoang, Weber (2016) - The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure
Autor:

Francesco D'Acunto

Daniel Hoang

Michael Weber

Quelle:

NBER Working Paper 22563

Datum: 01.08.2016

Abstract

Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We exploit a unique natural experiment for an empirical test of the effectiveness of unconventional fiscal policy. To comply with European Union law, the German government announced in November 2005 an unexpected 3-percentage-point increase in value-added tax (VAT), effective in 2007. The shock increased households' inflation expectations during 2006 and actual inflation in 2007. Germans' willingness to purchase durables increased by 34% after the shock, compared to before and to matched households in other European countries not exposed to the VAT shock. Income, wealth effects, or intratemporal substitution cannot explain these results.